High stakes on Rajya Sabha for BJP and opposition parties

Edited by, Updated: May 24, 2022 at 4:20 AM

Soon, the structure of Rajya Sabha will also look like that of Lok Sabha, which will benefit the ruling BJP. While it is likely to reach double digits, it still needs to get the majority. Claims for the BJP and opposition parties

Soon, the structure of Rajya Sabha will also look like that of Lok Sabha, which will benefit the ruling BJP. While it is likely to reach double digits, it still needs to get the majority. There is a lot at stake for the BJP and opposition parties, as elections for the president and vice president are scheduled between June and July. Naturally, any change in the composition of the state legislatures will affect the Rajya Sabha, which is called the House of the Elders.

Following the upcoming biennial elections for Rajya Sabha’s 57 seats and two by-elections on June 10, many changes will be seen in the House. Maybe some of the retired members will return and the rest will not. The growing strength of the parties is surprising, as regional parties are likely to win more than the two national parties, the BJP and Congress, after the biennial elections.

Territorial Kshatrakas ruled many states, including West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Delhi, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu. The young Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) governs Delhi and Punjab and has been the biggest beneficiary of the biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha. He has won five seats, bringing his strength in the House to eight. Regional parties can increase their strength from 25 from 57 seats to 27.

Second, opposition led by Congress was strong during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first term (2014-2019) and blocked most bills. The BJP, which had only 47 members in 2012, has now reached the three-digit figure. The change in figures came with Modi 2.0, which allowed the government to push through several controversial bills, such as the removal of section 370 and the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir into three parts.

Of the 59 members retiring, BJP has 25, its allies JD (U) and AIADMK three. The National Democratic Alliance (RJD) has 31 of 59 seats. It will be a challenge for RJD as he is likely to lose 7-9 seats. As for other parties, there are 3 members of the Samajwadi Party, 4 of Biju Janata Dal, 2 of the Bahujan Samaj Party and 3 of Telangana Rashtra Samithi. In contrast, YSR Congress, Akali Dal and Rashtriya Janata Dal each have one member.

In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP will lose 3 seats, which is currently one of the 4 in which elections will be held. YSR in 2019 The resounding victory of Congress means it will have benefits in all 4 seats. Similarly, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) will benefit in the two seats going to the polls. The three seats will remain in the possession of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). In Bihar, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will reform its numbers one by two and the AAP will win the two seats in Punjab that were previously occupied by Congress and Akali Dal. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has offered a seat in Congress, which is currently in the BJP.

Third, the Congress party, which has been the main opposition party since 2014, could shrink further. Electively, the Congress party has not recovered from the setbacks of 2014 and 2019 and has since been losing status one by one. His number in the Rajya Sabha fell even further after the subsequent biennial elections to the Upper House. The party will not get any seats in Andhra Pradesh, will go from 4 to 2 in Rajasthan and will lose one seat each in both Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. In addition, by 2024, elections will be held for 65 seats, but the chances of Congress are bleak, as its strength will be even lower.

Fourth, some senior Congress leaders will not get a seat in Rajya Sabha due to the recent Udaipur resolution calling for 50% youth participation in all positions. It is likely that the tenure of senior Congress leaders such as P. Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, Jairam Ramesh and Ambika Soni will come to an end. Instead, some EU ministers, including Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Minority Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, will step down. Although everyone is likely to return. The party will be able to place them all after winning 4 of the five states in the recent assembly elections.

Geographically, however, the footprint of Congress has shrunk. The party rules in only 4 states: in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh by its own power and in Maharashtra and Jharkhand it is in power as a minor partner of the ruling coalition. The party will get zero representation in the Rajya Sabha of 17 states and territories of the union. Above all, if the current spokesman M. Venkaiah Naidu is promoted as president or does not get a second term, it is likely that the Rajya Sabha will get a new president.-Kalyani Shankar

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