- Abhijeet Srivastava
- BBC correspondent
Arvind Kejriwal visited Gujarat on Monday. He held a tricolor demonstration in Mehsana, which is considered a bastion of the BJP.
During this, Kejriwal said, “I have spoken to thousands of people at the twenty-day Parivartan Yatra. Gujarat is calling for change. The people of Gujarat are fed up with the BJP and the BJP’s sister Congress.”
He said: “Wherever we have gone, everyone knows the good work that has been done in Delhi. The people of Gujarat are afraid of the BJP. Now there is no need to be afraid of the BJP. Now Gujarat is about to change. Bharatiya Janata Party There is only one medicine: the Aam Aadmi party. The people of the BJP are only afraid of the Aam Aadmi party and are not afraid of anyone. “
Two days ago, Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia told Vadodara that the Aam Aadmi party would contest all seats in the assembly in Gujarat.
Sisodia said, “We will contest all the seats in Gujarat. Now, the people of Gujarat have to decide. So far the people of Gujarat had no choice, but now they have a choice.”
In recent days, Kejriwal has made several visits to Gujarat. Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann held a road show in Gujarat on 2 April. Even before the tricolor yatra in Mehsana on Monday, that is, on June 6, Kejriwal had gone to Gujarat on May 1 and 11. He then also held rallies in Bharuch and Rajkot.
Assembly elections are scheduled for Gujarat later this year. In the 2017 elections, Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party had first run in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, but was unable to win any seats. This time the match has competed again, but this time the situation seems to have changed a bit.
On the other hand, in the last assembly elections, the Congress party performed better than in 2012 and the BJP seats were reduced to less than 100 for the first time. However, Congress did not then reach the magic number of the majority. But since then the condition of Congress has deteriorated in Gujarat.
How has Congress acted in the Gujarat Assembly?
Congress seats increased in the last election. While Congress won 61 seats in 2012, it won 77 of the 182 seats in 2017, while BJP seats fell from 115 to 99.
Although seats in Congress increased in the 2017 elections, but given the evolution of the past five years, experts see Congress as weak in the next election and see the Aam Aadmi Party as an emerging alternative.
Has Congress weakened or strengthened in Gujarat in the last five years?
Prior to the 2017 election, 15 members of Congress had left him and left. Shankar Singh Vaghela also participated. Later in the Rajya Sabha elections, Ahmed Patel also had to face a very tough competition and won by a very tight margin.
After 2017, by-elections were held in seven seats, of which the BJP won four and Congress won three. In 2020, by-elections were held in eight seats in which the BJP won all seats. And currently the number of BJP deputies has risen to 111.
Also, once again, as election time approaches, many old fellow Congressmen are marching on his side.
According to a report, 13 former MPs and incumbent MPs have left the party since 2017. In which the most recent name is Hardik Patel.
Congress vs. AAP
Meanwhile, in February last year, the Aam Aadmi party had an unexpected success at the Surat Municipal Corporation. At that time, the Aam Aadmi Party won 27 seats.
There are 120 seats in the Municipal Corporation of Surat and Congress could not even open its account there. Apart from that, in Jamnagar, Rajkot, Vadodara, Bhavnagar and Ahmedabad, the BJP also won by a large margin. It has been observed that after the 2017 elections, the size of the Congress in Gujarat has been steadily declining. So does the Aam Aadmi party in Gujarat seem to be an option in this election?
Senior journalist Ajay Umath He says: “It is too early to say that the Aam Aadmi Party will achieve great success in this election, but there is little chance that it could hurt the BJP’s voting bench.”
Right there Senior journalist Sharad Gupta He says: “Looking at the last election, then Congress had the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakur and Jignesh Mevani. A trio of youth leaders emerged. This gave enthusiasm to the young leaders and there was a possibility that the Congress will win. It will form the government, but in the last phase of the elections in Surat, the BJP won the majority of seats and formed the government. Although it won less than 100 seats for the first time. “
He says: “Now there is neither Jignesh nor Alpesh nor Hardik. Hardik has left recently. Many more leaders have left. A controversial video of Bharat Singh Solanki also emerged. The state of Congress is good. It is not seen, workers. “If there is no enthusiasm in the party, then supporters of Congress see no possibility from anywhere. In this situation, many people may think that the Aam Aadmi party is the best option against the BJP.”
Sharad Gupta says, “The strength of Congress is weak and it doesn’t even seem like it wants to rise again. There is a lack of leadership, so the Aam Aadmi Party is seeing a gap here.”
He says: “This is what they did in Goa and now they are seeing the same thing in Himachal and Gujarat. Especially in Surat, the 27-seat victory in the municipal elections has given a boost to the Aam Aadmi party.”
On the other hand, Ajay Umath says, “Of course, their candidates won the Surat Municipal Corporation election, but later many of them had joined the BJP and if it is their election victory in the assembly, the Aam Aadmi party is not very organizational. in Gujarat. It is. “
“There is no possibility that the AAP will come to power in Gujarat”
Ajay Umath says that although he has achieved success in Surat’s civic elections, but in this year’s elections, he will be able to make some charisma, at the moment there is no hope for him.
Behind that, he has the two big drawbacks of the party.
He says: “The Aam Aadmi party definitely wants to leave its mark, but it has no big face in Gujarat. The Aam Aadmi party had Bhagwant Mann in Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal is the face in Delhi but in Gujarat the biggest. “
The second major drawback is the lack of organization with the Aam Aadmi Party. He says “the party has no organization like the BJP and as the elections will be held at the end of the year and the party has less time to create an organization. It will be difficult for the party to win these elections.”
Ajay Umath says clearly: “There is little chance that the Aam Aadmi party will come to power in the next elections in Gujarat.”
in the state What is the state of the Aam Aadmi party?
In Gujarat, the Dalits, Adivasis and OBCs of the people are considered the voting benches of the Congress. While in urban areas, BJP control is considered strong. So which of these sections is watching the Aam Aadmi party? Do you want to emphasize urban areas or village areas or do you want to affect the voting bench of both Congress and the BJP?
Leading journalist Sharad Gupta says: “In the last three or four months, top BJP leaders, whether prime minister or home minister or BJP president, their visits to Gujarat and Himachal have increased enormously.”
He says, “The reason for this is not Congress, because if Congress is not visible anywhere, they will not go there for fear. If they are working so hard, they are doing it to fight the Aam Aadmi Party. Behind them ., there is the fear that the Aam Aadmi party may not hurt its polling station in the urban area, so it is definitely emerging as an alternative.
“There will be seen as an alternative, not only for Congress, but also for BJP supporters,” he says.
That is, as a whole, it can be said that in Gujarat there will be a competition between Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party to become the main opposition.