Opposition can stop the modi wave in 2024, satrap vs bjp: challenge of regional parties before 2024: save your home or stop the modi – satraps vs bjp again before 2024 as Indian politics sees a big structural change writes

Nalin Mehta
The simple arithmetic of those who are against the BJP is that the opposition only needs to unite to break the supremacy of saffron in elections. An alliance formed on the same ground as the anti-BJP, that is, the spirit of the enemy enemy of the enemy will automatically end the domination of the BJP. After all, despite its second massive wave in 2019, the BJP garnered the support of just over a third (37.36% share of votes) of India’s total voters. It is argued that if the remaining two-thirds of the votes are met, Modi’s high-flying will stop. However, voting in the presidential election has blown this arithmetic.

Many regional parties supported NDA candidate Draupadi Murmu in the presidential election. This shows that mere antimodism is not enough in itself to form an effective coalition of opposition parties. About 50 political parties voted in favor of Murmu. In contrast, only 36 opposition parties supported Yashwant Sinha. The special thing is that those who support Murmu include all parties that are not part of the NDA. For example, the BJD of Odysha, the YSR Congress of Andhra Pradesh, the BJP of Mayawati, the JMM of Jharkhand, the JDS of Karnataka and even the Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray.

Opposition has been seen in the face of bets made by tribal women as candidates for the BJP presidency. It became difficult for many parties to resist the prospects of a tribal woman reaching the highest position in the country for the first time. The change of political DNA of the ruling BJP and the message of advancing in the disadvantaged sections added to the difficulties of all those opposition parties who wanted to oppose Murmu on the basis of Hindu or simply anti-Hindu ideology. -BJP.

Regional parties have also undergone major structural changes in Indian politics since 2014. The unrest over the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has added to their challenges. Broadly speaking, the current Indian politics can be divided into 4 types of systems and all four are going through a period of great upheavals.

1. BJP vs. Congress (two-party system)
These are the states where for a long time all politics revolved around two parties: Congress and the BJP. There is a direct conflict between the two parties.

Which states: Gujarat, Himachal, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Delhi. Karnataka in recent years and now Manipur and Tripura can also be counted in this category. In most of these states, the BJP or Congress continues to come to power.

  • This pattern has dissipated in the national elections after 2014 following the emergence of the New BJP led by Narendra Modi.
  • Between 2014 and 2019, the BJP not only made gains during national elections in these states, but its turnout has also increased dramatically in most states.

what changes This has greatly weakened Congress, reducing its ability to be the pivot of the coalition at the national level. Not only that, the Congress vote bank in Delhi has been taken over by the Aam Aadmi Party. The same was seen in the 2022 Punjab elections. In this way, the AAP is also weakening Congress itself.

2. BJP vs. regional parties
These are the states where the BJP has replaced Congress or other parties as the main opposition party.

which establishesAndhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal and Odisha.

  • In Odisha, the BJP had 1 Lok Sabha seat (21.5% of voting share) in 2014, which increased to 8 in 2019. The voting share also increased to 38.4% during this period. . However, the BJD recorded an easy victory in the assembly elections. In Bengal too, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 assembly elections showed a pattern similar to that of Odysha.
  • In Telangana, the BJP has replaced Congress as the main rival of the ruling TRS. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 4 seats. These include the TRS Karimnagar and Nizamabad strongholds. After that, in the December 2020 corporate elections in Hyderabad, the BJP emerged as the second largest party.

what changes
Now all regional parties are trying to save their fort from the aggressive BJP. While all of these parties want to see the BJP weak, only a few of them are trying to take some strategic steps at the national level so that the rise of the BJP at the local level can be postponed a little longer.

3. Regional Parties Vs. Regional Parties
BJP is not a significant force in Tamil Nadu. The same goes for Kerala, where Left and Congress operate in the style of regional parties.

  • Speaking of Tamil Nadu, national issues are not very effective here, but in areas like northern Tamil Nadu, the BJP sees the increase in the share of votes as a ray of hope. In Kerala’s Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP’s share of votes showed more than 31 per cent. Its share of the vote is more than 25 percent in Patnamtita and Thrissur.

what changes,
As the AIADMK fights internal struggles, the Kerala Congress continues to weaken. BJP is trying to take advantage of this opportunity. Local equations are emerging again.

4. The dominance of the BJP in multipolar politics
These are the states that have traditionally been a multipolar contest and are now dominated by the BJP.

which state / territory– UP, Assam, Northeast, Jharkhand. Even Maharashtra can be counted in this category to some extent.

what changes
The BJP has become powerful and has pushed all regional parties behind it. Non-BJP parties are fighting to save their shattered ballot box.

The ideology of the BJP was once the biggest obstacle in the way of its development. But now politics has changed. Hindutva is no longer an obstacle to the expansion of the BJP except in some parts of southern India.

Second, in states like Telangana, where the BJP is the main opposition, the BJP is becoming a preferred destination for those dissatisfied with the government and its hardline leaders. Take only Itala Rajender. This former TRS leader joined the BJP in 2021 after resigning from the KCR cabinet. In November 2021, in the Huzurabad by-elections, he defeated his TRS rival by a large margin of about 24,000 votes.

Given the great alliances formed in the past, it must be the backbone of a great party like Congress or a charismatic leader behind it, as was Harkishan Singh Surjit in the 1990s. The collapse of Congress and the structural agitation of state policy cause more obstacles in the way of a possible great alliance. This is the biggest challenge for regional anti-BJP parties in 2024.

(The author is the author of the book ‘New BJP’ and Dean, School of Modern Media, UPES)

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